Satellite imagery of the disturbance in the Eastern Pacific, south of the southern coast of Mexico, on Tuesday afternoon (EDT).As of 2 p.m. on Tuesday, a disturbance south of the southern coast of Mexico, in the Eastern Pacific, has a 100% chance of forming into a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next 48 hours. This forecast by the National Hurricane Center notes that development into a tropical depression or tropical storm could happen as soon as Tuesday night.

The disturbance is starting to organize near a broad area of low pressure. This disturbance currently lacks a defined center of circulation, but environmental conditions are conducive to further organization and development as it moves west/northwesterly.

A disturbance is roughly defined as an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure that is over the ocean and could hold the potential to organize into a tropical system.

If this disturbance achieves tropical storm strength, the first name on the Eastern Pacific list for 2025 is Alvin.

Hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific officially began on May 15, earlier than the Atlantic and Central Pacific seasons. This is due to factors such as warmer sea surface temperatures and less wind shear early in the season, which support tropical development. The region is also influenced by the Central American Gyre, a large low-pressure area over Central America that can spawn tropical systems.

Compared to the Atlantic, which peaks around September 10, the Eastern Pacific experiences a longer period of activity with multiple spikes, particularly from late spring through fall.

Stay tuned for updates as the season progresses.