Severe Weather Outbreak Threatens Central and Southern U.S.

The central, southern, and eastern United States are bracing for an outbreak of severe weather that is predicted to persist through Sunday. Meteorologists are forecasting strong tornadoes, hail, and hazardous winds reaching speeds of 60 to 80 mph.

Forecasters warn that the most dangerous conditions will occur on Saturday, with one of the most significant tornado-producing setups in years expected to materialize over the Deep South, potentially leading to catastrophic outcomes.

On Friday, these intense storms were already causing havoc across the Plains, with reports of downed power lines, brush fires along roadways, and overturned tractor-trailers. Firefighters were busy battling wildfires in Oklahoma, prompting evacuations in certain areas.

One particular video captured a chaotic scene in Canyon, Texas, just south of Amarillo, showing orange dust swirling past damaged vehicles, including SUVs and semi-trucks, as gusts reached up to 80 mph, threatening road visibility, according to Luigi Meccariello, a National Weather Service forecaster in Amarillo.

On Friday afternoon, the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center elevated the risk level to a rare high (Level 5 out of 5) for Saturday, affecting parts of Mississippi and Alabama. This drastically heightened risk is only the third occasion on record where such a high risk was issued two days in advance, emphasizing the extreme nature of what is forecasted for Saturday.

This marks the first high risk rating since May 6, 2024, primarily due to the probability of intense, long-track tornadoes, which are rare occurrences, happening on less than one percent of days.

Additionally, Friday’s moderate (Level 4 out of 5) risk covered the Corn Belt and mid-Mississippi Valley, where strong tornadoes have been anticipated throughout the evening.

The same storm system is contributing to heightened fire risks and dust storms across the High Plains and southern Plains regions. The Storm Prediction Center noted, ‘A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread.’

Simultaneously, blizzard warnings are in effect in eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota as the colder front of the system is predicted to drop snow in substantial amounts.

Fire Weather Risk and Dust Storms

Regions including eastern New Mexico, northern Texas, much of Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas, and southwestern Missouri are experiencing an extremely critical fire weather risk— the highest warning level available.

Multiple fires have ignited across Oklahoma and Texas, endangering over 6.5 million individuals residing in the extreme risk area, including cities like Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Wichita, Lubbock, and Amarillo.

An additional 19 million people across nine states are under a critical (Level 2 out of 3) risk, including San Antonio, Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin, and Kansas City, Missouri. Meteorologists emphasize that, ‘any fire can get out of control very fast,’ advising people to take preventative measures and respect burn bans.

A large and dangerous dust storm, extending hundreds of miles across Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, has been observed in satellite imagery.

Forecast for the Coming Days

Friday Outlook

Areas: A moderate (Level 4 out of 5) risk has been issued for parts of the Mississippi Valley from southeast Iowa to Memphis. St. Louis, Memphis, and Paducah, Kentucky, are particularly at risk for tornadoes, while Des Moines and Springfield, Illinois, should prepare for winds exceeding 70 mph. Broader enhanced (Level 3 out of 5) risks stretch from Omaha to central Mississippi and western Alabama, with Chicago and Nashville facing a slight (Level 2 out of 5) risk.

Setup: A bowling ball of low pressure is present over the New Mexico/Colorado border, creating a conducive environment for severe thunderstorms as warm, humid air moves north from the Gulf of Mexico.

Two areas of severe weather are anticipated.

Northern Zone: A squall line is predicted to develop in eastern Missouri and central Iowa with damaging gusts of 60 to 80 mph, possibly resulting in tornado formation by sunset.

Southern Zone: The conditions in eastern Arkansas, northern and central Mississippi, and northwest Alabama are ripe for strong tornadoes if lunchtime thunderstorms develop; however, minor storms may produce significant tornadoes overnight.

Saturday Outlook

Areas: A high (Level 5 out of 5) risk is forecasted for eastern Mississippi and west-central Alabama, covering key cities including Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Jackson, and Hattiesburg. Moderate (Level 4 out of 5) risks face the Greater New Orleans area and sections of southern Mississippi, along with enhanced (Level 3 out of 5) risks for Nashville, Atlanta, and Tallahassee.

Setup: As low pressure ushers in a cold front, ample gulf moisture will fuel storm instability leading to conditions favorable for tornadoes.

Impacts: Expect thunderstorms capable of producing violent tornadoes, destructive winds, and sizable hail. Residents are advised to seek refuge in sturdy areas before the storms arrive.

Sunday Outlook

A slight (Level 2 out of 5) risk of severe weather extends from Philadelphia to Jacksonville, including areas like Washington, Baltimore, and Richmond. Additional thunderstorms could develop, prompting potential gusts of 60 mph and isolated tornadoes.